Despite higher-than-expected revenue earlier this year, the state Division of Budget doesn’t expect the good news to last.

The Cuomo administration’s numbers crunchers released a quarterly budget update today, showing weaker tax receipts will be in store later this year.

The report was likely written as the federal government was considering deep cuts to spending while wrangling over raising the debt ceiling, but there’s no indication the activity in Washington is reflected in the report.

“The budget is where we expected it would be at this point in the year,” said Morris Peters, a spokesman for the DOB.

The projection largely lines up with what Comptroller Tom DiNapoli announced earlier this month, namely that the state received nearly $800 million more in revenue.

DiNapoli pegged the figure at $799 million, the DOB projects it to be $809 million/

But the update quickly rains on that parade.

“DOB attributes the favorable variance to the timing of tax payments, which are expected to be offset by marginally weaker receipts collections over the remainder of the year,” according to the report.

Still, the state’s coffers were $1.6 billion higher in June than they were at that time last year. The DOB says that is due to positive wage growth, lower PIT refunds, sustained corporate profits and increased spending from consumers.

And budget deficits are still being forecast for the next three fiscal years, which begin April 1: $2.4 billion in 2012-13, $2.8 billion in 2013-14 and $4.6 billion in 2014-15.

Those gaps were estimated to be significantly higher before this current enacted budget, which closed a $10 billion budget gap through cuts.

The division continues to rely on $450 million in workforce concessions, but those savings are yet to be completely realized. And the division says $1.6 billion in savings has been achieved through across-the-board cuts from state agencies. But as Tom Precious pointed out, what those cuts exactly are remain a mystery.

2011-12FP_JulyUpdate

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