The race between Democratic Rep. Kathy Hochul and Republican Chris Collins remains a dead heat, with each candidate receiving 47 percent of the vote in a Siena College survey released today.

The poll shows that very little has changed from the August survey that found Collins with a slight 47 percent to 45 percent lead in the heavily Republican western New York district.

And despite an endless stream of ads, mailers and campaign events around the district still to come, most voters have apparently made up their minds.

Sixty-percent of voters told Siena they have “absolutely” made up their minds as to how they’ll vote, while 29 percent are “fairly certain” they’ll vote for one of the two candidates today and won’t switch.

That leaves a very narrow pool of undecided voters in an extraordinarily close race with only a month to go before Election Day.

“For those who felt the race for Congress couldn’t get any closer from where it was in August, this new poll proves them wrong. Now it’s fair to say the race cannot get any closer. And it looks like independent voters are going to be the key to this race. They were with Collins. Now they’re with Hochul. Who will they be with on Election Day? The answer to that question may very well determine the winner. One thing seems certain: the race is going to be neck-and-neck for the next four weeks until Election Day,” Siena College poll spokesman Steve Greenberg said.

The House district is considered one of the most competitive races around the state, with both national parties contributing money and other resources to the effort.

House Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader Eric Cantor have been campaigned and fundraised on Collins’ behalf.

Hochul, who is running for a full, two-year term after winning a surprise special election upset against Republican Assemblywoman Jane Corwin in a race that hinged largely on health care, has pushed the Medicare theme hard yet again.

But the poll shows voters are split — 43 percent each — on whether Collins, the former Erie County executive, or Hochul would be able to handle the issue well in Washington.

Collins does have wide leads over Hochul when it comes to the economy, jobs and the budget deficit.

“By double digit margins, voters say Collins will do a better job than Hochul on fixing the economy, jobs and the federal budget deficit,” Greenberg said. “Voters are divided between the two candidates on who would be better on health care, taxes and representing the community in Washington. And voters evenly split between Hochul and Collins – 43 percent for each – on who to trust to do the ‘right thing’ on Medicare.”

The district’s voters are most likely to back Republican Mitt Romney over President Obama next month, with the former Massachusetts governor leading the incumbent Democrat 51 percent to 42 percent the poll found.

The race hasn’t been without its negative streaks, with Collins accusing Hochul of being a “public sector millionaire.” Hochul and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have taken steps to cast Collins as an unprincipled businessman who laid off workers after investing in businesses.

Still, that hasn’t dinged up the candidates’ public images too much, though the survey found both Hochul and Collins have suffered slightly in the category.

The survey of 633 likely voters was conducted between Oct. 1 and Oct. 4 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.

CD27 October 2012 Crosstabs

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