Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf seems to think so.

As we dwelled earlier on Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s party co-chair parting with him on pension smoothing, Sheinkopf in an op/ed in today’s Times Union notes a more serious structural problem for the New York Republican Party when it comes to gun control and other social issues.

In the piece, Sheinkopf writes that a moderate GOP in this very blue state will survive, while a conservative one will be a marginal party.

Why not just obey the conservative wing of party on social issues? Because it is at odds with the majority of this state and makes Republicans unelectable statewide. And yet, some in the leadership are still beholden to the conservatives to protect its local legislators in upstate districts. The gun issue has made it impossible to do both at once.

Only a moderate Republican is viable in this state. A conservative Republican Party will exist only in the margins. The gun issue has defined the turf. Now the GOP will have to decide.

Sheinkopf also notes that downstate Republican voters back Cuomo’s sweeping gun control law passed in January, while it’s the opposite case for upstate Republicans.

Still, there are outliers in the state Senate, like Buffalo Sen. Mark Grisanti who backed the law, while Sen. Lee Zeldin of Suffolk County, who wasn’t present for the vote for U.S. Army Reserve training, said he would have voted on.

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