Mar 4th - 1:51 pm
GOP memo to Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei: Don’t get too comfortable.
National Republicans are looking to get an early start in their quest to re-take NY-24 from Maffei after he toppled former Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle last fall.
A Central New York source says NRCC Chairman Greg Walden, of Oregon, made a trip to the area this weekend and met with several potential candidates – including Buerkle herself, who is maintaining her D.C. ties and hasn’t yet ruled out a re-match (this would be the third time she faces off against Maffei) in 2014.
According to this source, Walden also chatted with two others: Onondaga County Comptroller Bob Antonacci, who made a brief and unsuccessful attempt at landing the GOP nod for statewide office – first comptroller, and then attorney general – back in 2010; and Onondaga County Executive Joanie Mahoney.
Walden was spotted at private reception for high-dollar donors that preceded Mahoney’s 2013 gala reception at the Oncenter Ballroom Saturday night.
The idea of a Mahoney candidacy is intriguing on a number of levels, not the least of which is the pickle in which that might put Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Mahoney, as you’ll recall, enraged her fellow CNY Republicans when she crossed party lines to endorse Cuomo for governor in 2010.
Since then, she has co-chaired his transtition committee, become a NYPA trustee and been a staunch advocate for a number of his policies, including his controversial pension smoothing proposal that has caused so much friction between Cuomo and his hand-picked state Democratic Party co-chair, Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner.
Cuomo endorsed Maffei’s successful re-match against Buerkle last year, but it would put him in an awkward position if Maffei was pitted against Mahoney.
Another full endorsement of a Republican would not sit well with the left at a time when Cuomo will be seeking re-election himself. (Remember how well that – failed – endorsement of former Republican Sen. Steve Saland played with the liberal base?)
The 2014 races are a long way off, but President Obama is reportedly already looking ahead to the next round of mid-terms to in hopes of helping the Democrats re-take control of the House to help cement his legacy.
Mahoney’s chief of staff Ben Dublin confirmed that the county executive did indeed meet with Walden to discuss 2014 this weekend. Asked if she might be interested in running, Dublin replied:
“It’s very flattering to have her name mentioned, but right now, she’s focused on being county executive. Thar race is a long way off.”
Which, by the way, is not “no.”
UPDATE: NRCC spokesman Ian Prior emailed:
“The NRCC is absolutely looking to flip NY-24 in 2014. We view Maffei as a weak candidate with a misguided party-line mentality and a record of questionable decision making while in office (e.g, handing out midnight bonuses on his way out the door).”
“In a mid-term election without Maffei hanging for his political life on the coattails of the President, we are confident that, with the right Republican candidate, Maffei will suffer the same fate as he did in 2010 – defeat.”
“While I cannot confirm specific individuals with whom he met, I can confirm that Chairman Walden was in the Syracuse area meeting with several potential candidates to gauge interest in running for a very winnable seat.”
Nov 9th - 2:15 pm
Republican Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, who two years ago rode a wave of tea party support into Congress in a closely contested election, is conceding this afternoon to Democrat Dan Maffei.
Buerkle is trailing by more than 14,500 votes after Tuesday’s election against Maffei, the incumbent she defeated in 2010.
Despite it being unlikely to overcome the deficit with absentee ballots, Burekle had not conceded the race on Election Day.
The race was an expensive one, with both candidates lobbing charges at each other over womens health issues and the future of the Medicare program.
The newly formed district in the Syracuse area was also more difficult for a Republican to run in, especially in a presidential election year.
Nov 7th - 3:35 pm
Republican Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, who narrowly won her first term two years ago against Democratic incumbent Dan Maffei, now finds herself in the reverse situation this time around.
Maffei is the apparent winner of Tuesday’s race, but Buerkle says she’s not conceding, announcing in statement earlier today that she wants to see every vote count.
Buerkle won her Syracuse-area seat by 567 votes in 2010, a Republican wave year.
But Maffei, who has declared victory, now leads 130,508 to Buerkle’s 117,904.
“In 2010, we were trailing on election night, only to see more votes come in and the outcome changed. With so many ballots still to be recorded, it is important that we make sure there is an accurate counting of all votes. Our right to vote has been bought and paid for by the men and women of our armed services, and we owe it to all who have paid the ultimate price to count these ballots and allow the Democratic process to run its course.”
Nov 7th - 12:40 am
Former Rep. Dan Maffei successfully defeated Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, who took his job in GOP wave of 2010.
UPDATE: Rep. Buerkle’s speech to supporters.
Nov 3rd - 12:00 pm
I think Steve Greenberg’s press release headline says it best:
“So Much Campaigning; So Much Money; So Little Movement.”
Seven weeks and millions of dollars after Siena’s first poll found Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle and Dan Maffei is a dead heat, with each receiving 43 percent of the vote, the two candidates have both gained a meager one percentage point, bringing the NY-24 race to a 44-44 deadlock.
Green Party candidate Ursula Rozum is receiving 8 percent, while a mere 3 percent remain undecided.
Buerkle and Maffei each have the support of 76 percent of the voters in their respective parties.
While Buerkle has a small three-point lead among independents in a district virtually evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, this race is tied because Maffei gets slightly more support from Republicans than Buerkle gets from Democrats, Greenberg said.
Maffei leads in Syracuse 60-26, compared to 60-30 percent in September.
Buerkle edges out Maffei in the rest of Onondaga County 46-44 – virtually unchanged from 45-44 percent.
She also leads 49-37 in the rest of the district, compared to 45-33 in September.
Maffei now leads with women by 12 points after previously trailing by one point, and Buerkle leads among men by 13 points.
More than eight in 10 voters on both sides say they will not be changing their minds come Election Day.
But only one-third of Rozum’s supporters are that committed to their candidate, so it’s possible either Maffei or Buerkle could pick up some of the Green Party candidate’s backers come Tuesday.
Both Maffei and Buerkle are viewed slightly more unfavorably than favorably by NY-24 voters, but his favorables have taken more of a hit than hers during this campaign.
President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in NY-24. But that race has tightened. It’s now at 53-42, which is down from Obama’s 19 point lead in September.
As Greenberg says: It all comes down to GOTV now. Whichever candidate is better at getting his or her supporters to the polls is likely to win this one.
But it’s very likely to go into overtime.
Maffei has already gone to court seeking an impoundment order for all the ballots cast Tuesday. The two sides are due in court for a hearing Monday afternoon.
Nov 2nd - 2:59 pm
Talk about planning ahead.
We still have three full days remaining before voters head to the polls, and congressional candidate Dan Maffei’s campaign has already gone to court seeking an impoundment order for all ballots cast in the NY-24 race.
YNN Syracuse’s intrepid Bill Carey tells me a hearing is set for 1:30 p.m. on Monday in front of state Supreme Court Justice Deborah H. Karalunas.
Maffei spokesman Marc Bruner said: “This is a standard practice in potentially close races to ensure a fair and accurate count of every vote.” (Yes, that’s true. But this seems early to me…or maybe it’s just me).
Early or not, this isn’t terribly surprising, given the fact that Maffei lost his seat to Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle – the woman he’s now trying to unseat – back in 2010 by less than 700 votes.
A Siena poll released last month found Maffei and Buerkle in a dead heat, with both receiving 43 percent of the vote. Green Party candidate Usula Rozum was at 7 percent, (which explains why the Republicans are so keen to keep her in the race and perhaps even boost her performance) and 6 percent were undecided.
Siena is scheduled to release its second assessment of this race over the weekend. The contest is widely considered one of the top 10 most competitive House races in the country.
UPDATE: Here are all the legal documents:
Nov 1st - 2:19 pm
Democrat Dan Maffei, whose fight to re-take his seat from Republican Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle is one of the most competitive House races in the country, just received a nod from the country’s top elected Democrat: President Obama.
The Maffei campaign released the following statement from the president:
“America’s middle class needs Dan Maffei in Congress to stand up and fight for them. Dan will create jobs here at home by building from the middle out, not the top down. He will protect Medicare for our seniors and education for our next generation. Middle class families can count on Dan and he needs your support on election day.”
Of course, a statement isn’t anywhere near as significant as an in-person endorsement. But the president is, understandably, a little busy right now, focused on trying to hold on to his own job in a very tight race witth Republican Mitt Romney.
This isn’t the first high-profile endorsement Maffei has received. He was one of three upstate Democrats, along with Reps. Kathy Hochul and Louise Slaughter, to benefit from in-person visits and endorsements from former President Clinton.
Maffei wasted no time in touting Clinton’s support in a TV ad. Don’t be surprised to see last-minute mailers and/or radio and TV ads that also mention the Obama endorsement, too.
Early last month, Siena found the NY-24 race a dead heat, with Maffei and Buerkle both receiving 43 percent and Usula Rozum getting 7 percent.
That poll showed Obama with a huge, 55-36 percent lead over Romney in the newly drawn NY-24, even though the district has slightly more enrolled Republicans than Democrats.
However, at that time, the president was not providing any coattails for Maffei. In fact, only 70 percent of Obama supporters said they were with Maffei, while 88 percent of Romney supporters are with Buerkle.
That same poll found Gov. Andrew Cuomo has a 75 percent approval rating with NY-24 voters. Last week, Cuomo endorsed Maffei (along with Hochul and Slaughter) and made an appearance in the district on his behalf.
Siena is scheduled to release another NY-24 poll this weekend, so we’ll see what – if anything – has changed over the past month.
Oct 31st - 8:11 am
There’s nothing new about Green Party NY-24 candidate Usula Rozum’s message in her first (and I believe only) TV ad of the campaign.
Health care for all. No more corporate greed. Student debt forgiveness. Free college education.
All these are topics Rozum has touched on throughout her underdog campaign against Democrat Dan Maffei and Republican Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle.
But Rozum also makes brief mention of climate change in the ad, which is running on cable stations in Central New York this week.
Although that’s not an unusual focus for a Green Party candidate, it’s one that perhaps has slightly more resonance in the post-Sandy era when top elected officials like Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bloomberg are talking about extreme weather and the need for New Yorkers to adjust to a “new reality.”
Rozum was polling in the single digits the last time Siena took voters’ temperatures in NY-24, but that was enough to cause a dead heat between the two major party candidates.
The convention wisdom is that Rozum’s presence in the race pulls support from Maffei and helps Buerkle, which explains why the congresswoman has been more than happy to appear with her Green Party opponent at multiple town halls, forums and debates on which Maffei took a pass.
The NY-24 contest is considered one of the most competitive House races in the country and is being closely monitored by national leaders of both parties as they battle for control of the chamber.
Oct 27th - 12:19 pm
Democrat Dan Maffei, who’s trying to win back his seat from the Republican who ousted him from it in 2010, Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, was one of several New York congressional contenders boosted recently by brief visits from Bill Clinton.
Maffei is now up with a new TV ad touting his support from the former president.
It’s pretty straightforward, and also mentions his endorsement by the New York Times.
The press release announcing this ad trumpeted the fact that it’s a “positive” spot, which says a lot about the nature of the NY-24 race and the barrage of attack ads it has generated to date.
Oct 23rd - 9:17 am
It’s a one-two punch against GOP Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle this morning in NY-24.
On the heels of the House Majority PAC’s announcement that it has launched its first attack ad targeting the freshman congresswoman, her Democratic opponent, Dan Maffei, revealed he’s got a new ad out, too.
The tone of these two ads is actually similar, though the content is not.
Generally speaking, they both suggest Buerkle is not what she seems, presenting herself as an independent-minded lawmaker fighting for her constituents, when she’s really hewing to a conservative ideology that Democrats consider too extreme for the Central New York district she represents.
Here’s the text of Maffei’s new ad, which the campaign says is “backed by a significant broadcast and cable buy”:
“Behind Congresswoman Buerkle’s rhetoric is a disturbing Tea Party record.”
“Buerkle voted to end Medicare as we know it, increasing costs on seniors over $6,000 a year, while Buerkle voted herself taxpayer-funded health care for life.”
“Congresswoman Buerkle: Out for herself, too radical for us.”
I’m Dan Maffei, and I approve this message because we have to protect Medicare and strengthen it by balancing the budget the right way.”